International Data Corporation recently presented their top technology predictions for 2014. Frank Gens, Senior Vp and Chief Analyst at IDC hosted a webinar presenting the research firm�s predictions for 2014 such as the research firm�s latest cloud-computing market forecast. You can see a replay of the webinar and acquire the predictions documents at IDC Predictions 2014. They are briefly summarized below: - Cloud Computing Forecast 2014
Emerging markets will come back to double-digit development of 10%, driving nearly $740B or 35% of worldwide IT revenues and, the first time, a lot more than 60% of worldwide IT spending growth. IDC also predicted that in 2014 the amount of smart connected devices shipped in emerging markets will almost double that shipped in developed markets. In addition, IDC predicts that the following seven years emerging markets cloud spending will grow seven-fold versus three-fold in developed markets. IDC is predicting IT spending in Western Europe is going to be marginally up, with U.S. and Japan spending marginally down.
Worldwide IT spending will grow 5% year over year to $2.1 trillion in 2014. Spending will probably be driven by 3rd Platform technologies, that will grow 15% annually and capture 89% of IT spending growth. Smartphones and tablets will lead 2014 growth, making up over 60% of total IT growth. Excluding mobile phones, IT growth will only with a modest 2.4%. The graphic shown to the best was shared during the webinar today, explaining another platform and its particular contribution to market growth.
Within the next Platform, value will quickly migrate �up the stack�, from infrastructure as a service (IaaS) to platform being a service (PaaS) and from generic PaaS to data-optimized PaaS. The latter will be most evident as Amazon Web Services rolls out an avalanche of platform-as-a-service offerings for developers and value services for businesses. This may force incumbent IT suppliers - the businesses that won market leadership inside the 2nd Platform era - to urgently reconfigure themselves to address for position in the 3rd Platform marketplace.
The cell phone onslaught will continue in 2014 with sales of tablets growing by 18% and smartphones by 12%. The Android community, led by Samsung, will maintain its volume advantage on Apple, while Apple will hold onto its value edge with higher average price tags and an established ecosystem of apps. But Google Play (Android) app downloads and revenues decide to make dramatic gains and also the �app ecosystem value gap� is going to be significantly narrowed in 2014. As well as the clock is going to be ticking louder for Microsoft, which has to quickly double mobile developer interest in Windows. Frank Gens presented these graphic to guide this prediction:
Cloud spending, including cloud services and also the technology to allow these services, will surge by 25% in 2014, reaching over $100B. IDC explained the $100B figure includes software, services and cloud infrastructure. IDC also expects to find out an impressive rise in the quantity of datacenters as cloud players race to attain global scale. This is accompanied by a similar expansion in the number of workload-specialized cloud infrastructure services, ultimately causing new kinds of differentiation among cloud companies. Finally, a pitched battle will be joined for the developers that will create the cloud-based applications and solutions that will fuel the market�s growth. IDC predicts that by 2017, 80%+ of latest cloud apps is going to be hosted on six PaaS platforms.
Spending on big data technologies and services will grow by 30% in 2014, surpassing $14 billion as need for big data analytics skills continues to outstrip supply. Here the race will probably be onto develop �data-optimized cloud platforms�, capable of leveraging high volumes of information and/or real-time data streams. Value-added content providers and data brokers will proliferate as enterprises (and developers) look for interesting data sources in addition to applications that help these to understand their customers, products, and the markets where they exist. IDC can be predicting that big data analytics services 2014 spending will exceed $4.5B, growing 21% over 2013.
Social technologies can become increasingly incorporated into existing enterprise applications within the next 12-18 months. In addition to being a strategic component in practically all customer engagement and marketing strategies, data from social applications will feed the product and service development process. IDC expects enterprise internet sites will end up increasingly available as standard offerings from cloud services providers. This may enable enterprises to help embed social in to the workflow, rather than creating a separate �social layer.� IDC also predicts that by 2017, 80% of Fortune 500 companies could have an energetic customer community, up from 30% today. By 2016, 60% with the Fortune 500 will deploy social-enabled innovation management solutions.
Datacenters represent the physical foundation underneath the cloud, and therefore are thus a crucial component of another Platform. As cloud-dedicated datacenters grow in number and importance, the marketplace for server, storage, as well as networking components will increasingly be driven by cloud service providers, who've traditionally favored highly componentized and commoditized designs. The incumbent IT hardware vendors, who've struggled to sell into this market, is going to be made to adopt a �cloud-first� strategy, designing new innovations for initial release and widespread adoption in cloud service provider datacenters.
The 3rd Platform will provide the next-gen of competitive advantage apps and services that will significantly disrupt market leaders in virtually any industry. A key to competing over these disrupted and reinvented industries will be to create industry-focused innovation platforms (like GE�s Predix) that attract and invite large communities of innovators - dozens to hundreds will emerge within the next many years. IDC predicts that most of those industry platform players is not going to reinvent the cloud underpinnings they require, and often will develop top Amazon, Microsoft, IBM, Salesforce, and others� platforms. In 2014, it will be essential for these IT leaders to find these emerging industry platform players and win their business.
The 3rd Platform continuously expand beyond smartphones, tablets, and PCs in 2014 to the net of products (IoT). With IoT momentum building in 2014, IDC expects to find out new industry partnerships to emerge as traditional IT vendors accelerate their partnerships with global telecom companies and semiconductor vendors to produce integrated offerings inside the gadgets and connected device spaces. This sort of collaboration and coordination is going to be necessary to get to the 30 billion autonomously connected end points and $8.9 trillion in revenues that IDC believes the IoT will generate by 2020. - Cloud Computing Forecast 2014
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